Modeling Populations of Interest in Order to Simulate Cultural Response to Influence Activities Using Cognitive and Systems Dynamic Approaches to Model Potential Individual and Societal Reactions to US Actions

The phenomena that maintain or transition dictatorship and democracy have recently become understandable enough to pose dynamic (testable) hypotheses amenable to simulation [1]. As such, the ability to address intervention dynamics and unintended, higher order consequences is key focus of this work. The objective of the described work is to develop a systemslevel, capability that will allow analysts to better assess potential actions and counteractions of individuals interacting within a country of interest before, during, and after a U.S. initiated event (see Figure 1). Specifically, the assessment will address the dynamics that drive stability and instability within the country of interest. The intent is to (1) assess adversarial choice options that allow analysts to pose “what-if” queries concerning hypothetical policy and/or military initiatives to help determine how and why a population may react to a specific event, leader, or operation across time; (2) assess potential blind spots by providing analysts with the ability to better understand 2and 3 -order interaction effects between leaders and local societies and how allegiances are formed and changed over time; (3) perform risk analysis by hypothesizing and testing the limiting assumptions and unknowns for the successful outcome; and (4) perform risk management by establishing whether there are delayed consequences that will require mitigation or adjustments to planning. Figure 1. Simulating how influential behavior affects intent and responses, while intent and responses can influence behavior.